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|Market Tendency On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys At 15th June 2006|
|= Suddenly Weakened Exchange Rate Of S.African Rand / US$ Influences On Rise Of Fe-Cr Price For Q3|
The market tendency by item on imports of ferro-alloys into Japan at the 15th June of 2006 is as follows ;|
<> General view = The negotiations with electric furnace mills in Japan on Yen prices of bulk ferro-alloys for shipments in July - September quarter are going to start. The price of ferro-silicon contracted for shipment in a single month of July has already risen by Yen 20,000 per ton and it is marked how extent is this power able to reflect the price to be contracted on quarterly base. The contract to be concluded on quarterly base has included more risks than those on monthly contract and has to face such risks as a rise of price and an unstableness of delivery. Accordingly, it is no wonder that, by taking into account of these risks, the price of higher than Yen 100,000 per ton for ferro-silicon is unexpectedly contracted for shipments in July - September quarter. Owing to the strengthened exchange rate of Japanese Yen against US-Dollar and a rise of price on US$ base for ferro-silicon to be imported into Japan, it is inevitable for the trading companies concerned to have a loss on transaction of ferro-silicon in April - June quarter and, therefore, these trading companies will offer ferro-silicon for shipments in July - September quarter at a higher Yen price in order compensate a loss as mentioned above.
<> Ferro-silicon = By taking a chance on the steeply risen price of ferro-silicon, some of Chinese producers are already scheduled to convert their electric furnaces for silico-manganese to produce ferro-silicon but it is anticipated that a time to exhibit an effect of this conversion, causing an increase of the supply, will come in later part of this summer at the earliest. The price of Chinese ferro-silicon has risen from May to an extraordinary extent but a power to rise further this price has slowed down and a phenomenon, having made a pause, has been seen sporadically. The matter in question is how do the parties concerned in Europe and the USA act for this aspect of Chinese ferro-silicon. Since a strong power to supply ferro-silicon from China has been marked by Europe and the USA, these two regions are approaching China with a different way of inquiry for ferro-silicon from that by Asian region. Namely, in order to transport Chinese ferro-silicon on a long distance, the customers concerned in Europe and the USA are considering to arrange a large vessel, allowing to ship a substantial quantity of Chinese ferro-silicon. It is wondered how extent does this arrangement of transportation put an impact on the market of ferro-silicon in China. At present, Chinese ferro-silicon is being offered at US$850 - 860 per ton CIF Japan and the price of US$900 CIF as targeted by Chinese side is within a hailing distance.
<> Silico-manganese = Since the USA has imposed higher dumping duties on imports of silico-manganese produced in China and Ukraine, the sources to import silico-manganese into the USA have been restricted and, consequently, the price of silico-manganese in the USA has risen up to a level of US$850 - 860 per ton ex. warehouse. This distorted composition on supply of silico-manganese in the USA will cause hereafter a higher price of silico-manganese in this country and exist as " a negative legacy " but, even after this factor in the USA is excluded, a basic tone to rise gradually prices of manganese ferro-alloys is not negligible. However, Red Book, as the preferential system for export, is expired by the end June of 2006 and, prior to this expiry, Chinese suppliers are supposed to rush their exports of silico-manganese in June. Reflecting this situation at Chinese side, the price of silico-manganese offered from China is in the range of US$660 - 670 per ton CIF Japan at present and the actual price contracted is US$10 per ton lower than the price range as mentioned above.
<> Charge chrome = In view of the fact that the exchange rate of South African Rand against US-Dollar has suddenly weakened and come down to the rate of US$1.00 : R.6.9 - 7.0, the cost situation in South Africa is now changing. The reason, why the exchange rate of Rand against US-Dollar has weakened steeply, is due to the strengthening rate of US-Dollar and a review of South African economy and, because of that the exchange rate of Rand against US-Dollar had been maintained on an extremely high level for more than 2 years, the negotiations with stainless steel mills in Europe and Asia on price of South African charge chrome for shipments in July - September quarter scheduled to be taken place soon will be affected by this weakened exchange rate of Rand against US-Dollar. There was an opinion in the market that, when the exchange rate was US$1.00 : approximately R.6, it should be necessary to have a rise of 5 - 7 US-Cents per lb. for South African charge chrome, but the suddenly weakened exchange rate of Rand against US-Dollar as seen this time is causing to disappear a line of 7 - 10 US-Cents per lb. to be risen on the basis of the strengthened Rand rate as arisen previously.
<> Silicon metal = Being stimulated by a steep rise of price for ferro-silicon, some of Chinese shippers are intending to offer Chinese silicon metal with 5.5.3 grade at US$1,000 per ton CIF Japan. However, in expectation of an expansion of the demand, Chinese side increased their production of silicon metal with 4.4.1 grade for chemical industry but this increase of the production has caused to feel an excessive supply of this metal. As this grade of Chinese silicon metal is also possible to be used for production of aluminum alloys, there is a lack of the power to push up price of silicon metal. On the background of the circumstances as mentioned above, the prices of silicon metal contracted with aluminum alloy plants in Japan for shipments in July - September quarter are in the range of US$960 - 970 per ton CIF Japan for many cases but a basic tone of price for silicon metal is in the direction to rise.
<> Manganese metal = The price of Chinese electrolytic manganese metal had been depressed for a long period of 6 months but this dark tunnel has at last seen a brightness. Chinese producers have taken an attitude to rise price of this metal to be sold by them and a lower price than US$1,200 per ton CIF Japan is going to disappear from the market. Bullish shippers are now offering Chinese electrolytic manganese metal at US$1,230 per ton CIF Japan as the highest at this moment The background of this rise is the active demand for electrolytic manganese metal from domestic market of China to be consumed for production of 200 series stainless steel. The matter to investigate environmental pollution has taken a breathing time but is not allowed to have an optimistic view.
<> Ferro-vanadium = South Africa, where has concentrated on vanadium production, is being blown by a favorable wind of the weakened exchange rate of Rand against US-Dollar. Also, while major producers are scheduled to implement their maintenance in summer season, price of ferro-vanadium seems to be currently falling by approximately US$1 per kg. in every week and dealers are now offering ferro-vanadium at US$39 - 40 per kg. CIF Japan, showing a gradual fall.
<> Molybdenum = Chinese ferro-molybdenum is being currently offered at US$60 per kg. CIF Japan, having recovered from a lower level than US$60. Although Chinese side said that this recovery of price for ferro-molybdenum is due to an anxiety for an unstableness of the supply, spot purchases of ferro-molybdenum at reasonable prices by consumers in advance of summer holidays are supposed to have resulted in a recovery of price for ferro-molybdenum. Reflecting a rebound of price for ferro-molybdenum, molybdenum oxide is being offered at US$28 per lb. in the USA.
|last modified : Wed 21 Jun, 2006 [11:03]|