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Market Tendency On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys At 30th May 2008
= A Peak Of Price For Ferro-Silicon May Be Up To Summer Time
The market tendency by item on imports of ferro-alloys into Japan at the 30th May of 2008 is as follows ;

<> General view = It has passed about 3 weeks after the historical large earthquake occurred in Sichuan Province of China. The routes to transport commodities have been damaged to a critical extent and the deliveries of cargoes from Sichuan area to shipping ports have been still confused. The damages arisen from this earthquake are much more serious than those emerged by a heavy snowfall attacked Huanan district in January - February of this year and it is still difficult to foresee a restoration of all damaged facilities. In addition, the matter to exaggerate these confused circumstances is that, in anticipation of the Beijing Olympic Games to be held in August, Chinese steel mills have purchased in advance raw materials for forward deliveries. Consequently, it is supposed that mills have secured stocks of ferro-alloys to be consumed in the next 2 - 3 months. After the Olympic Games in Beijing passed off, a tightness on supplies of ferro-alloys is thought to loosen to a considerable extent like such a flow as " snow meltwater " and this change of the supplies will cause to lower the steeply risen prices of ferro-alloys. However, in another meaning, the tightened supplies of ferro-alloys are anticipated to continue further for the next 2 months at least.

<> Ferro-silicon = Spot price of ferro-silicon has risen further and a bid was made in last week at US$2,350 per metric ton FOB China. Since the Sichuan earthquake, spot price of Chinese ferro-silicon has risen by US$400 - 500 per ton. Many of the parties concerned have a view that price of ferro-silicon will rise further on a long run and the case to rise its price to a level of US$2,500 per metric ton is thought to be within hail. A peak of price for ferro-silicon is forecasted to come in July - August and, therefore, it is still not allowed to be optimistic of price for ferro-silicon in the next 2 months at least. Many opinions have suggested the judgement that, after summer season has passed, the confused transportation in China will be calmed down. However, the matter in question is how to proceed the negotiations with Chinese shippers on revision of unit prices under the existing contracts. The price of US$2,350 per metric ton FOB China was already bidden and, therefore, it is hard to foresee how does price of ferro-silicon move for the near future.

<> Silico-manganese = The cargoes of silico-manganese imported into Japan and discharged at main ports have filled at warehouses in wharves and, consequently, the importers concerned have been suffering from the difficulties to secure the spaces to stock silico-manganese. This stocked quantity of silico-manganese is estimated to be durable for consumption in the next 2 - 3 months. Accordingly, Japan has held back to purchase silico-manganese for the time being. It is no wonder that, under this situation, price of silico-manganese has a possibility to fall. However, the negotiations with Chinese importers on price of manganese ore to be newly contracted for shipments in July - September quarter are moving to the direction to rise again the price and, therefore, there is an anxiety to raise the costs for silico-manganese to be produced in China and South Korea for July - September quarter. When the factor for cost inflation is taken into account, the case to fall price of silico-manganese is unable to come up and the parties concerned have taken an attitude to watch carefully about further movements of price for silico-manganese.

<> Charge chrome = The negotiations on price of South African charge chrome for shipments in July - September quarter are now coming in. Chinese stainless steel companies have still maintained the structure to reduce their production of stainless steel in June, following that in May, and, in view of a change of the demand for charge chrome from the consuming industries, including summer holidays to come in Europe, the negotiations on price of charge chrome for July - September quarter are thought to be taken place with a different taste from that for April - June quarter. A view, which price of South African charge chrome for shipments in July - September quarter has a possibility to be settled by roll-very, is now spreading over the market and, therefore, it is marked to see how to connect the current tightened supply of charge chrome with the reducing production of charge chrome for winter season of July - September quarter in South Africa. A fever, which the benchmark price of US$2.00 per lb. of Cr CIF Japan has been settled for shipments in April - June quarter, is now cooling down and this aspect has been influenced by a fall of LME nickel prices and a depression on production of stainless steel in China..

<> Low carbon ferro-chrome = Since the reducing production of stainless steel does not put a direct influence on price of low carbon ferro-chrome, price of this ferro-alloy has still inclined to keep a high level and the price of low carbon ferro-chrome with carbon 0.1% max. contracted with European mills for shipments in July - September quarter has certainly risen to a level of US$5 per lb. of Cr. Spot price of this ferro-alloy as of the beginning of May has already risen to a level of US$5 and, accordingly, price of low carbon ferro-chrome with carbon 0.1% max. to be contracted with regular consumers for shipments in July - September quarter will rise to this level of US$5 per lb. of Cr. The negotiations with steel companies of Japan on price of low carbon ferro-chrome for July - September quarter will be taken place soon. The prices of low carbon ferro-chrome settled with Japanese customers for shipments in April - June have had a considerable differential of US$4.00 to US$4.70 per lb. of Cr but this large difference of prices is supposed to be narrowed for shipments in July - September quarter.

<> Manganese metal = Being stimulated by the earthquake occurred in Sichuan Province of China, price of electrolytic manganese metal produced in China has turned to rise to a level of US$4,500 per metric ton CIF Japan but this sharp rise of price for this metal has now made a pause. The price of Chinese electrolytic manganese metal had at once risen by US$500 per ton for the Sichuan earthquake but, after that, has come to a standstill. A heavy rainfall and flood in Hunan Province and Guizhou Province were once worried about but this rainfall stopped by the end of last week and the deliveries of cargoes are thought to have been not influenced so much. On the contrary, an anxiety is how extent does the reduced production of stainless steel in China put an influence on the demand for electrolytic manganese metal from domestic market.

<> Silicon metal = The main bases to produce silicon metal in China have been located in Huanan district, consisting of Sichuan Province, Guizhou Province, Hunan Province and Fujian Province. Almost of these bases produce silicon metal by hydroelectric power. However, main affairs occurred in these areas for May were <> Sichuan Province : earthquake, <> Guizhou Province and Hunan Province : a heavy rainfall and flood continued by the end of last week, and <> Fujian Province : drought. China has a large land and, accordingly, a degree of influence has differed depending on each place. However, only the unified movements taken place in China are <> to hold back to make new offer and <> to take a stance to rise price of silicon metal. The offers, proposing price of Chinese silicon metal with 5.5.3 grade for shipments in July - September quarter, are scarce. Also, Chinese shippers have intended to rise price of silicon metal to a higher level than US$2,450 per metric ton CIF Japan for July - September quarter. The price of Chinese ferro-silicon has shown a power to exceed that of Chinese silicon metal and, therefore, price of silicon metal has been certainly encouraged by this aspect. The negotiations with aluminum alloy plants of Japan on price of silicon metal to be shipped in July - September quarter are anticipated to be taken place soon but have now a possibility to start in a later time than usual one.

<> Molybdenum = China exported 7,059 tons in material of molybdenum products in January - March quarter of 2008, which were within the quota (29,983 tons) allocated for exports in the calendar year of 2008. China produced 16,525 tons in material of molybdenum concentrate in January - March quarter of 2008, having increased by 16% compared with that in the same quarter of 2007. It is marked to confirm whether a decrease of exports and an increase of domestic production on the statistical figures indicated an expansion of the domestic consumption of molybdenum in China or not. The current price of Chinese ferro-molybdenum has recovered to a level of US$79.50 per kg. of Mo CIF Japan. A speculation for price of ferro-molybdenum on the occasion of the Sichuan earthquake was unable to put an impact on the market. In the course of time, prices of molybdenum products once fell but, after that, have been underpinned.

<> Ferro-vanadium = Ferro-vanadium is a typical commodity to be speculated and, on the occasion of the large earthquake in Sichuan Province, price of ferro-vanadium has at once risen to a higher level of US$87 per kg. of V CIF Japan, in comparison with a lower price than US$70 prevailed in the time before this earthquake. Having felt a repugnance to this higher price of ferro-vanadoium, the business on ferro-vanadium in Europe has become very slow at present and a possibility to rectify this higher price of ferro-vanadium is coming up.
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last modified : Thu 05 Jun, 2008 [10:41]
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