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| General Review On Supply And Demand Of Mn Ferro-Alloys In Japan For Jan. - Mar. 2008 |
| = Domestic Production Was Unable To Expand But Imports Of Medium & Low Carbon Fe-Mn Increased |
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Let us look over the supply and demand of manganese ferro-alloys in Japan for January - March quarter of 2008. The output of crude steel in Japan for January - March quarter of 2008 came to 30.835 million tons, having recorded the largest quantity per quarter since 1972. Following this tide, the total quantity of manganese ferro-alloys consumed by the steel industry of Japan in January - March quarter of 2008 had an increase compared with that in the same quarter of 2007. When the quantities of manganese ferro-alloys consumed in Japan for January - March quarter of 2008 are compared with those for the same quarter of 2007, the consumption of high carbon ferro-manganese increased by 6.2%, that of medium and low carbon ferro-manganese increased by 25.2% and also that of silico-manganese increased by 11.5%. The consumption of so-called refined ferro-manganese, consisting of medium carbon ferro-manganese and low carbon ferro-manganese, in January - March quarter of 2008 had a substantial expansion and this aspect was due to a result of the tendency mainly at blast furnace mills, having inclined to produce more high quality steels. The mills so far used electrolytic manganese metal as raw material for production of high quality steels but are now shifting its raw material from electrolytic manganese metal to refined ferro-manganese and a substantial growth on consumption of refined ferro-manganese in Japan is an evidence of this materialization. Previously, blast furnace mills in Japan used this kind of refined ferro-manganese as raw material to produce high quality steels but it has passed 10 years since these mills had once converted to use electrolytic manganese metal produced in China because of its lowered price. However, blast furnace mills of Japan have changed again their usage from the second half of 2007 and have been currently using mainly refined ferro-manganese. The quarterly quantities of refined ferro-manganese consumed in Japan for the calendar year (January - December) of 2007 were <> January - March quarter 2007 : 22,754 tons, <> April - June quarter : 20,975 tons, <> July - September quarter : 23,279 tons and <> October - December quarter : 27,844 tons. Therefore, the consumption of refined ferro-manganese in Japan has trended to increase from the second half of 2007 and the consumption of this ferro-alloy in January - March quarter of 2008 increased further. The statistics on consumption of manganese metal in Japan was not compiled and, accordingly, it is unable to have the data of manganese metal consumed in Japan but the quantity of electrolytic manganese metal imported from China into Japan had a considerable decrease from the beginning of 2008. It is still not possible to foresee up to when does a period to shift raw material from electrolytic manganese metal to refined ferro-manganese continue. However, it is supposed that this shift of raw material has progressed to a substantial scale. Being influenced by this increased consumption of refined ferro-manganese, Japan imported 11,322 tons of refined ferro-manganese in January - March quarter of 2008, which had a considerable increase of 2.3 times compared with that (4,951 tons) in the same quarter of 2007. Japanese producers of ferro-manganese have been according with a change of the consumption at blast furnace mills. Nippon Denko has planned to construct one new electric furnace (No.4 electric furnace with transformer capacity of 7,000 KVA) at their Tokushima plant and is scheduled to complete this construction in November of 2008. Accordingly, Nippon Denko will be able to set up the structure to produce 30,000 tons per annum of refined ferro-manganese, including the output by No.3 electric furnace already installed at the Tokushima plant. The trigger, having caused to return to consumption of refined ferro-manganese, is distrustful of Chinese producers, who have shared nearly all of electrolytic manganese metal supplied to the steel industry of Japan. An unstable supply of electrolytic manganese metal to Japan by Chinese producers as emerged in April - June quarter of 2007 has multiplied this distrustfulness of Chinese side. By taking a chance on the temporary tightness of supply, Chinese producers had taken a bullish attitude toward sales of electrolytic manganese metal to Japan, having resulted in the extraordinarily risen price and the delayed deliveries or nondeliveries, and this Chinese behavior has multiplied a distrustfulness of Chinese producers by the steel industry of Japan, mainly from blast furnace mills. Reflecting an unstable supply of Chinese electrolytic manganese metal, the market price of refined ferro-manganese in Europe has risen to a considerable extent and the current price of medium carbon ferro-manganese has come to a level of US$5,000 per metric ton in Europe. Chinese electrolytic manganese metal is now being offered at US$3,950 per metric ton CIF Japan, having fallen to a lower level than US$4,000 per ton. Medium carbon ferro-manganese contains Mn of 80% min. and, on the other hand, Chinese electrolytic manganese metal contains Mn of 99.8%. Therefore, on the basis of manganese unit, it is calculated with its cost-wise that Chinese electrolytic manganese metal is advantageous. However, when blast furnace mills of Japan have once decided to change ferro-alloy to be used by them, these mills have maintained this policy for a long period. Therefore, under the present situation, it will be difficult to return to use again electrolytic manganese metal on a substantial scale. Nevertheless, from a technical point of view, the necessity and merit to use electrolytic manganese metal have still remained in steel side and, accordingly, the parties concerned have an opinion that nearly 1/3 of the peaked consumption will survive. Also, in view of a tendency, which the demand for special grade electrolytic manganese metal with free of selenium from aluminum industry will enlarge, it is anticipated that a separation of the demand for electrolytic manganese metal from both sectors of steel and aluminum will progress hereafter. The quantities (on material base) of manganese ferro-alloys produced, imported ,consumed and stocked in Japan for January - March quarter of 2008 were as per the table shown below ; |
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| last modified : Wed 20 Aug, 2008 [12:29] |
