| The TEX Report Topics < Ferro Alloys > | |
| HOME >> Topics List >> November, 2008 >> 21 (Fri) |
| Actual Quantities Of Molybdenum Supplied And Consumed In Japan For First Half 2008 |
| = Output Of Special Steels Increased By 4.5% But Molybdenum Consumption Remained Unchanged |
|
Let us trace the actual quantities of molybdenum supplied and consumed in Japan for the first half (January - June) of 2008. The base to consume molybdenum depends on production of crude special steels and the special steel industry of Japan produced 13.742 million tons of crude special steels in the first half of 2008, which increased by 4.5% compared with that (13.143 million tons) in the same period of 2007 and developed vivid production activities, but the actual quantity of molybdenum consumed in Japan for the first half of 2008 had remained on a similar scale to that for the same period of 2007. Japan imported 18,935 tons in material of molybdenum ore (molybdenum oxide) as raw material in the first half of 2008, having remained on a similar level to that (18,967 tons) in the same period of 2007. Also, Japan imported 1,554 tons in material of ferro-molybdenum in the first half of 2008, which did not have a large change from that (1,550 tons) in the same period of 2007. The steel industry of Japan consumed 2,797 tons in material of ferro-molybdenum in the first half of 2008. having remained on a similar level to that (2,757 tons) in the same period of 2007. Frankly speaking, the actual quantities of molybdenum supplied and consumed in Japan for the first half of 2008 had been entirely stabilized but this aspect was closely related with the fact, which the international molybdenum prices in the first half of 2008 had moved on a high level. The movements of the international price (per lb. of Mo) for molybdenum oxide in the first half of 2008 were <> for January - March quarter : in the range of US$33.45 as a higher side and US$32.97 as a lower side and <> for April - June quarter : in the range of US$33.31 as a higher side and US$32.55 as a lower side. Accordingly, the international price of molybdenum oxide moved slowly in the center of US$33 per lb. of Mo for the first half of 2008 and maintained a very high level. The cost to produce molybdenum oxide at primary mines is estimated to be on a line of US$10 to 15 per lb. of Mo. Therefore, the base, which a very high level of price for molybdenum oxide as risen by more than the double from its cost had pushed through, was in line with a tide of the mood so-called as higher prices of material resources. Also, the supply situation of molybdenum had been placed on an undercurrent, being anxious for the matter which major mines are anticipated to decrease their molybdenum production in 2008 to a lower level than that in 2007. New projects to develop molybdenum mines are now being proceeded in North America, South America and Australia but, as for a time to commence molybdenum production, even the Climax Mine (Freeport-McMoRan) in the USA has planned to produce 30 million lbs. per annum of Mo in molybdenum concentrate from 2010 and other new projects have aimed to materialize their molybdenum production in 2010 and afterwards. The quantity of molybdenum to be supplied to the world market in 2009 is in principle expected to be on a similar scale to that in 2008. Therefore, the market has held an anxiety for the potentiality to become a tightness of molybdenum supply and the parties concerned have noticed that, if the world demand for molybdenum increases, a possibility to rise price of molybdenum oxide to such extraordinary extent as that (risen to US$40 per lb. of Mo) arisen in 2005 is hidden. However, a sharp fall of molybdenum prices started from late October of 2008 is the matter to collapse this anticipation of supply and demand of molybdenum from the root. Accordingly, it is an evidence that a decline of the demand for molybdenum in 2009 to be caused mainly by the depressed production of automobile has been seriously acknowledged by the market. It seems to be a strong view in the market that, even if the quantity of molybdenum to be supplied in 2009 is decreased somewhat, a scale to retreat the world demand for molybdenum is thought to be larger mainly in Europe and the USA. Needless to say, this is not negligible that the funds, which had maintained molybdenum prices on an extraordinarily high level in the past 2 -3 years, have been withdrawn from the market because of a crisis of the international monetary situation emerged suddenly from mid September of 2008. The market price of molybdenum oxide had been maintained on a level of US$30 per lb. of Mo in an early part of October but continued a fall and has at last fallen to US$9.50 in the middle of November, having broken a level of US$10. The market has been still in the mood to weaken further and an opinion is that price of molybdenum oxide is anticipated to fluctuate by the up-and-down of US$2 -3 in the center of US$10 per lb. of Mo within this year. In order to cope with this steep fall of molybdenum prices, Freeport-McMoRan, as a major molybdenum mining company in the USA, announced immediately (1) the Henderson Mine (with capacity to produce 40 million lbs. / year of Mo) in Colorado State of the USA decreases their molybdenum production by 10 million lbs., and (2) the Climax Mine by pit-miming, which proceeded from 2007 the preparation for reopen, defers its restart (scheduled to resume from 2010). The Climax Mine has been evaluated as the most competitive mine from a cost point of view among new molybdenum projects but the matter to defer its resumption will be inevitable to put a certain influence on new molybdenum projects under developments in North America, South America and Australia. Thompson Creek Metals of the USA already announced that new project to develop the Davidson Mine (a primary molybdenum mine) in British Columbia Province of Canada has been postponed. This project is scheduled to mine crude molybdenum ore from 2009 - 2010 with capacity to produce 5 million lbs. per annum of Mo in concentrate. |
 |
| last modified : Thu 27 Nov, 2008 [10:20] |
