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|Cutback Of Nickel Production Is Expected To Become Effective From 2nd Half 2009|
|= JOGMEC, Nickel Demand In China Is Thought To Keep Firmness On Basic Tone|
JOGMEC (Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation) held on the 26th of March a meeting to report about the present situation and an outlook concerning minerals and metals, and this meeting was well attended by the parties concerned. In the course of this reporting, Mr. Takashi Ueki, Chief of Investigation Section of Metals Resources Development Division in the Corporation, delivered his speech titled as " Supply and Demand of Nickel " and the contents are summarized as follows ;|
The main points are (1) An enlargement to reduce nickel production at nickel producers is expected to become effective from the second half of 2009 and, according to an information from Reuter, an analyst forecasts nickel price on the yearly average as <> 2009 : US$11,222 per ton and <> 2010 : US$13,482 per ton., (2) The world demand for nickel is decreasing but that from China is keeping a firmness on a basic tone., (3) The world demand for nickel started to decrease from the second half of 2008 and nickel price has been depressed, having caused to suspend many of new nickel projects. Consequently, the world production of nickel has decreased and nickel price moved in the range of US$9,400 - 10,000 per ton., (4) Major companies implemented M&A in relation to nickel. An oligopoly of nickel production has been on the high level from a previous time and, even after M&A, an extent of this oligopoly has remained as nearly unchanged., (5) Nickel production by HPAL process is being put to practical use and even low grade oxidized nickel ore is becoming an objective material to develop., and so on.
In spite of the basic tone which stainless steel production in western countries is being reduced in 2008 to 2009, China has become a remarkable existence to demand more nickel. China has been positioned as an extraordinary country to increase rapidly the demand for nickel and Chinese demand for nickel in 2007 is estimated to have increased to a scale of 320,000 - 330,000 tons per annum. For a reference, the demand for nickel in South Korea and Taiwan passed a peak and turned to decrease. The nickel demand from Japan and Germany has trended to increase.
Also, in this report, the supply and demand of nickel in China were analyzed and the quantity of nickel supplied to China in 2007 came to 320,000 - 330,000 tons per annum, having corresponded to the nickel consumption in China and consisted of domestic production and imports. The output of nickel ore in China has come to a standstill and, accordingly, China has been increasing to import nickel ore and nickel metal.
Owing to the suddenly and considerably increased demand for nickel in China, the four countries in Far Eastern region (China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) have shared 53% of the world demand for nickel in 2008. The shares in the world demand for nickel allowed to the Asian market were <> 1990 : 29.6%, <> 1995 : 36.3%, <>2000 : 40.9%, <> 2005 : 47.2% and <> 2007 : 52.5%.
However, owing to the extraordinarily risen price of nickel in 2007, the world production of stainless steel has shifted largely from nickel-based products to chrome-based products. The output of nickel-based stainless steel products in Japan for 2007 had decreased to 55.7% as a whole. Therefore, it can be said that the steeply risen price of nickel has caused to reduce the nickel consumption on a worldwide scale.
|last modified : Thu 02 Apr, 2009 [10:46]|