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| Market Tendency On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys At 15th April 2009 |
| = Offensive For Sales Of Ferro-Alloys Taken By India Has Shaken China |
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The market tendency by item on imports of ferro-alloys into Japan at the 15th April of 2009 is as follows ; <> General view = Chinese producers of ferro-alloys have become very sensitive to the offensive for sales of ferro-alloys in overseas markets (particularly, in Asia) taken by Indian producers. As the countermeasures for self-protection, Chinese producers have proposed to the Central Government of China to raise duties on imports of ferro-alloys and to impose antidumping duties, because the quantities of ferro-chrome and silico-manganese imported from India into China are currently increasing. Owing to a shrunken scale of the world economy, India was once a small country to export ferro-alloys in the past years but the current sales of ferro-alloys by India have become a nervous matter for Chinese producers. The background of this phenomenon is that India invested a large amount of money in facilities to produce ferro-alloys for 2008 and the sales of ferro-alloys at higher prices by China have certainly stimulated India. This aspect has caused a cynical result but this result to shrink the functions for production of ferro-alloys in China should be a matter of serious concern for Japan, having imported substantial quantities of ferro-alloys from China. <> Ferro-silicon = The floor price of ferro-silicon to be exported from China has risen by US$20 per ton from the 1st of April and new floor price of Chinese ferro-silicon for export has come to US$1,100 per metric ton FOB China. However, exportable price of Chinese ferro-silicon has remained unchanged and a weak tone of prices covering exports of ferro-alloys has put a certain influence on the market. Apart from the matter, which Russian producers intend to increase their sales of ferro-silicon for Japan to a scale of 50,000 - 60,000 tons per annum, any other powerful country to be able to compete with China on sales of ferro-silicon is so far not seen. Only the competitions between Chinese producers have existed. The current price of ferro-silicon offered from China is on a level of US$1,100 - 1,150 per metric ton CIF Japan. <> Silico-manganese = The total quantity of silico-manganese imported from India into Japan in the first 2 months (January and February) of 2009 had shared 25% of the whole import and this aspect has become an evidence of how extent did Indian silico-manganese permeate into the market of Japan at discounted prices from the end of last year. India also produces silico-manganese with Mn 60% grade and, accordingly, it is not allowed to mention specially only of a lower price than US$900 per ton CIF but a normal price of Indian silico-manganese to import into Japan is on a level of US$950 - 975 per metric ton CIF. On the other hand, following this discounted price of Indian silico-manganese, China is now offering silico-manganese at US$1,100 - 1,200 per metric ton CIF Japan as fallen by more than US$100 per ton but Indian suppliers have been negotiating advantageously on sales of small lots. Indian silico-manganese is said to have been sold out up to April shipment but has a possibility to be the exports with a loss and the matter in question is a continuity to export silico-manganese from India. An evidence of this problem is that the operation rate for production of silico-manganese in India has currently had a considerable decline. The capacity to export silico-manganese from India has been restricted and, therefore, it is marked to see how does India cope with a recovery of the demand. For a reference, the price of manganese ore for shipments to Japan in April - June quarter of 2009 has been settled but any arrangement is not made yet for shipments in July and afterwards and some of the parties concerned have a view that this case is thought to anticipate a further fall of price for manganese ore in the near future. It seems to be far away from a stabilization of price for manganese ore as raw material for production of silico-manganese. <> Charge chrome = It has also arisen that even South African charge chrome has been shaken by the offensive for sales taken by India. Indian charge chrome is now being sold at a lower price than 60 US-Cents per lb. of Cr CIF in the market of China but, as the settlements of accounts closed on the 31st March of 2009 have finished, the sales of ferro-chrome at discounted prices for financing have disappeared and price of Indian charge chrome has rebounded somewhat. However, the price of 65 US-Cents per lb. of Cr CIF offered from India is thought to be still unacceptable to the market and a lower price than 65 US-Cents is supposed to be workable. The price of South African charge chrome for shipments to Europe in April - June quarter has been settled at 69 US-Cents per lb. of Cr by a reduction of 10 US-Cents and one of the reasons for this price reduction has been viewed as caused by the offensive for sales from India. It is also anticipated that the benchmark price (at 87 US-Cents per lb. of Cr for shipments in January - March quarter) of South African charge chrome for shipments to Japan in April - June quarter will be settled in this week in form to slide to the price fixed in Europe. The benchmark price of charge chrome for this quarter to be settled with Japan has a big probability to be reduced by 10 US-Cents per lb. of Cr from that fixed for January - March quarter. <> Low carbon ferro-chrome = The price of low carbon ferro-chrome to be contracted with regular consumers in Japan for shipments in April - June quarter was initially offered on a level of 185 - 190 US-Cents per lb. of Cr CIF for carbon 0.1% max. material but, in view of the lower price prevailing in Europe, the price settled with Japanese consumers has come down to a lower level than 180 US-Cents and a level of 170 US-Cents per lb. of Cr CIF Japan has been normalized for carbon 0.1% material. <> Manganese metal = Reflecting the reduced production of crude steel, the quantity of electrolytic manganese metal required to be imported into Japan in 2009 has a probability to be shrunken to a scale of 20,000 - 30,000 tons per annum, having decreased to half of that in the preceding year of 2008, and the negotiations on imports of electrolytic manganese metal into Japan have become sluggish. Chinese electrolytic manganese metal is now being offered at US$2,300 per metric ton CIF Japan with a further and gradual fall. <> Molybdenum = The positive purchases of molybdenum by China have become the topic of a talk and, as a matter of fact, China imported 4,872 tons of roasted molybdenum ore, 2,070 tons of unroasted molybdenum ore and 93 tons of ferro-molybdenum in January to February of 2009, having totaled to 7,035 tons on material base. It has been spread out in the market that China has purchased 10,000 tons in material of molybdenum from the western countries in January - March quarter, and the information as mentioned above has shown a certain reliability. China is supposed to have purchased these quantities of molybdenum mainly from convertors, who have held excessive stocks of molybdenum. The cost to produce molybdenum oxide in China is estimated to be on a level of US$10 per lb. of Mo and the current market price of molybdenum oxide in the USA and Europe (lower than US$8.00) is clearly lower than that in China. The reason, why China has turned to the country to import molybdenum, is due to the situation of production cost. The prices of molybdenum prevailing in the western market are US$7.80 per lb. of Mo CIF Japan for molybdenum oxide and US$19.40 per lkg. of Mo CIF for ferro-molybdenum respectively, having still fallen further. <> Ferro-vanadium = Dealers are offering ferro-vanadium at US$20 - 22 per kg. of V CIF Japan, having also shown a further and gradual fall. Since the structure to reduce steel production in Europe has still continued, the factors to stimulate vanadium market are scarce. |
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| last modified : Tue 21 Apr, 2009 [10:36] |
