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| World Demand For Nickel In CY 2009 Is Estimated At 1.18 Million Tons With Decrease Of 8.5% |
| = At General Meeting Held In Last Week By INSG At Lisbon, Oversupply Continues |
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A General Meeting by The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) was held on the 23rd and 24th of April at Lisbon of Portugal. A forecast of nickel production and nickel consumption in the calendar year (January - December) of 2009 was released on the 24th and, according to this report, the world production of primary nickel in 2009 is estimated at 1,260,000 tons. Also, the world consumption of primary nickel in 2009 is anticipated to decrease further to 1,180,000 tons and both of production and consumption in the world nickel industry are thought to decrease in 2009, following the declines in 2008. Therefore, the situation of primary nickel in 2009 will come to an oversupply of 80,000 tons. The depressed demand for nickel has been caused by a crisis of the world economy emerged from October of 2008 but, at this General Meeting, most of the parties concerned have a view that a recovery of the world economy is supposed to be difficult to place in orbit until the second half of 2009 at least. For a reference, the quantities of primary nickel produced and consumed in the world for the last 2 years were (1) in 2008 : <> produced 1,390,000 tons and <> consumed 1,290,000 tons (an oversupply of 100,000 tons) and (2) in 2007 : <> produced 1,420,000 tons and <> consumed 1,310,000 tons (an oversupply of 110,000 tons). Also, the relationship between production and consumption of primary nickel has had an oversupply in the range of 80,000 - 110,000 tons per annum for the successive 3 years from 2007. In order to cope with a reduction in stainless steel production, major nickel producers of the world have determined successively to decrease their nickel production from October of 2008 and the total quantity of primary nickel to be reduced is estimated to reach a scale of 300,000 tons on an annualized base. However, on the other hand, new nickel projects commence to operate in 2009 (such as Posco nickel) and, consequently, an effect of cutbacks in nickel production is being partially offset. However, among new nickel projects initially scheduled to operate in 2009, many of them have been decided to defer its operation to 2010 - 2011(such as Goro project and Onca Puma project by Vale, Berro Alto project by AAC, and so on). Nevertheless, stainless steel production, having shared 62 - 65% of nickel consumption, is anticipated to maintain a basic tone to be reduced even in 2009. A leading analyst forecasted that the world production of stainless steel in 2009 will be 220 million tons by a decrease of 16% from that in 2008, and the circumstances surrounding nickel are on a sluggish trend. Also, according to a speculation spread over the nickel market, it is supposed that, in addition to LME nickel stocks of 106,000 tons, nickel producers are thought to have stocked 100,000 tons of nickel and a potentiality, having stocked 100,000 tons of nickel in the market, seems to be possible to exist. Consequently, there is an opinion in the market that the world stocks of nickel will total to 300,000 tons and this aspect will put a heaviness on the nickel market. |
| last modified : Thu 07 May, 2009 [11:23] |
