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| Total Output of Molybdenum By 7 Major Mining Companies In Q1 / 09 Decreased By 20% |
| = Increased Moly Imports By China Had Underpinned Decreased Moly Consumption In Western Countries |
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The total quantity of molybdenum in molybdenum concentrate produced by seven major molybdenum mining companies of the western world in January - March quarter of 2009 came to 55.90 million lbs., having decreased by approximately 20% compared with that (69.29 million lbs.) in the same quarter of 2008. According to the contents in settlements of accounts for January - March quarter of 2009 released by these seven companies, the quantities (on Mo content base) of molybdenum in concentrate produced by them in the quarter were as per the table attached hereto. There is a strong view in the market (as Mr. Johm Graell Moore, President of Molymet, said so in Chile) that the total quantity of molybdenum in concentrate to be consumed in the western market for the calendar year (January - December) of 2009 is anticipated to decrease by 30% compared to that for the preceding year of 2008, but a scale of molybdenum production at these mining companies is still not prepared yet to cope with this decrease of molybdenum consumption in 2009. However, by taking a chance on this fall of molybdenum prices, China has shifted their molybdenum purchases from domestic products to the cargoes to import from overseas countries at discounted prices and, consequently, China imported approximately 7.0 million lbs. (on Mo content base) of molybdenum (mainly molybdenum oxide) from overseas sources (mainly from North, Central and South American countries) in January - March quarter of 2009. A decline of molybdenum production in the western world has been partially diluted by an expansion of molybdenum demand in China and the international oversupply of molybdenum has been rapidly improved from the beginning of May. According to an information from experts well-experienced in China, the total quantity of molybdenum imported by China in January - March quarter of 2009, including the cargoes as speculated, is supposed to have reached an overwhelmingly larger scale than that recorded in the customs-statistics. As seen from the table attached hereto, the total quantity of molybdenum in concentrate reduced actually by seven major mining companies of the western world in January - March quarter of 2009 came to 13.4 million lbs. On the other hand, China actually imported 6.85 million lbs. on Mo content base of molybdenum products in the quarter. Therefore, the total quantity of molybdenum as effected to improve the world situation of molybdenum supply is estimated to have reached 20.25 million lbs. Nevertheless, on the assumption that molybdenum consumption in the western world for January - March quarter of 2009 would have decreased by 30% compared to that in the same quarter of 2008, the quantity of molybdenum decreased in consumption for the quarter is thought to be 20.78 million lbs. As far as the global molybdenum situation in January - March quarter of 2009 is concerned, the supply seems to have been balanced in the western world. Molybdenum is recovered as by-product in copper production and, therefore, this molybdenum production is said to be difficult to cope quickly with a sudden decrease of molybdenum consumption More than 80% of molybdenum to be supplied to the world market is estimated to be produced as by-product in copper production and this fact has been seen from concrete cases in the past years. Accordingly, molybdenum is the metal to be easy to continue its depression for a long period. When China still continues to import molybdenum, molybdenum will become the second quickest metal to improve the supply situation, following copper. However, the point, having differed from copper, is that China is originally the country to produce molybdenum and continued to exports molybdenum products on a scale of 60 - 70 million lbs. per annum (corresponded to 15 - 20% of molybdenum consumption in the western world) for the last 10 years. The present situation, which China has faced an excess in imports of molybdenum, has been caused by the following factors ; (1) In order to accord with the policy to preserve natural resources as adopted by the Central Government of China, this Government has enforced the regulations to restrict exports of molybdenum products, and (2) The international price of molybdenum oxide had fallen to a lower level than US$10 per lb. of Mo during November of 2008 to April of 2009 and the economic circumstances were not favorable for molybdenum production in China, having resulted in a loss. Particularly, in view of the fact that molybdenum prices have turned to rise (the international price of molybdenum oxide has risen to a level of US$9.50 - 10.00 per lb. of Mo) as mentioned in the above (2), it is marked to see how do Chinese molybdenum producers react hereafter to this rise of molybdenum prices (to resume molybdenum production in China). When the international price of molybdenum oxide rises to a level of US$10 - 12 per lb. of Mo, a possibility to resume molybdenum production at idled mines in China is supposed to come up. If China stops to increase their imports of molybdenum, molybdenum producers in the western world will see a necessity to reduce further their molybdenum production, because the case to reduce molybdenum production by 20% on quarterly base seems to be severe to keep a balance on supply and demand of molybdenum in the world. |
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| last modified : Thu 28 May, 2009 [10:43] |
