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Market Trend of Import of Ferroalloy as of July 31, 2013
=Manganese metal market rebounds, and Mo oxide remains at low level of US$9's/lb=
Current market trend on import of ferroalloy as of July 31, 2013 is as follows.

<> General Overview = Although the ferroalloy price in China remained weakened till June, the observation has come up that some items touched the bottom in the beginning of July as well as others in the middle of July. Some persons concerned with the market opine a series of downward trends hit the bottom. However, what turned upward are only a few items such as silico manganese and manganese metal, which however are anticipated to stagnate in the near future. On the one hand, in spite of the price being at the bottom, most of Japanese trading firms and customers seem to be hesitating to buy and accumulate due to serious concern over the future yen exchange rate.

<> Silicon Metal = As to Chinese 5.5.3 grade as a representative product for aluminium, the offer price for export continues to remain unchanged at US$1,830 - US$1,850 per ton CIF. Albeit some products seemed to be offered at a cheap rice of US$1,800 in the latter half of July, the producers also have felt they reached the limit to continue to offer a low price below cost. Although the actual demand is weak, some are questioning whether it is possible to seek for lower prices than the present ones.

<> Ferro-silicon = Whereas Chinese producers raised the offer price for domestic consumption by US$10 per ton, the price for export was lowered by US$10 by contraries. This is because the roundabout products via Vietnam pushed down the price in the export markets such as Japan, Korea and Taiwan. At the moment, there is a rumor in the market that China's export duty (25%) will be removed or reduced. This is in the stage of China Ferroalloys Industry Association lobbying the central government through China Chamber of Commerce of Metals Minerals & Chemicals Importers & Exporters (CCCMC) to work on the demand from ferro-silicon producers, and even if the alteration of the export duty is implemented, it will be effective at earliest from next January.

The prices of Russian products were pushed down by the roundabout products via Vietnam. Both offer and contract prices were down by US$10 per ton from mid-July.

<> Silico Manganese = The production curtailment in the summer season started in Europe, and the export of Indian products places a disproportionate emphasis on the Asia including Japan. Because of that, the producers continued a money-losing sales corresponding to the price cut by buyers, and the price of CIF Japan was reduced by US$10 - US$20 per ton. Besides, some dealings whose quantity was big were clinched at US$1,000 per ton. The important supply sources (Ukraine and Kazakhstan) other than India do not join a price war and take a wait-and-see attitude.

As to Chinese products, the price for the domestic market continued to be flat and the offer price meant for Japan was same as that in the middle of the month.

<> Charge Chrome = As to spot goods, it still continues no deal has been clinched yet. Regarding the cheap high-carbon ferro- chrome which seems to be a Chinese product via Vietnam as reported last time, no further information is available up to now. If the price is calculated supposing there is a Chinese product via Vietnam, as that price after the freight via Vietnam being added will be same or more than Indian products, the trading firms consider it will have no merit to buy Chinese products unnecessarily. As a matter of fact, it emerges as a possible case that it was a cheap product of low-carbon ferro-chrome.

<> Low-carbon Ferro-chrome = After the spot price went up in mid-July, it continued to be flat. As some current spot prices are more than the regular contract price for the period from July - September, there is a movement that some customers reduce the purchase of spot goods and increase the quantity of the regular contract.

<> Molybdenum = The international price of molybdenum oxide which continued to be declining has at last dipped below US$10 per lb. Furthermore, the price continued to drop due to short sales by traders, and dropped to US$9.12 - US$9.20 last weekend. The all-time low price was US$7.90 recorded in April 2009 which was greatly impacted by Lehman Crisis. The possibility is small for the price to come down to that level this time. In case of the current price being weakened to below US$9, The traders who continue the short sales will foster a sense of caution against pursuing a cheap price. On the other hand, as to the movement by the supplier side, molybdenum producers are taking a different attitude respectively, and some major mines' productions show an upward trend and not keep a pace in adjusting the supply.

<> Manganese Metal = The export price of Chinese manganese metal continued to be declining from the beginning of the year, and at last touched the bottom in the latter half of July. The lowest contract price was around US$2,000 per ton CIF Japan. Thereafter, albeit the price continued to be flat, it rebounded a little and the contract price was resumed to a level of US$2,070 - US$2,090. The production cost in China is said to be US$2,200 which is thought to be a strong desire to resume the profitability of the producers which continued a money-losing operation. However, the anticipation by the persons concerned with China's market is pessimistic, and it is understood that the price will lose momentum soon after this time's rebounding and continue to be flat or become weakened again. Furthermore, apart from the circumstances in China and the countries to which China exports, there are still many factors remaining for price cut such as market conditions for rival metals of nickel and refined manganese.
last modified : Tue 06 Aug, 2013 [15:52]
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