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Market Trend of Import of Ferroalloy as of 30 June 2015
= Mo price continues declining, and EMM price also drops again =
The market trend of import of ferroalloy as of 30 June 2015 is as follows.

<> Silicon Metal = In the Chinese domestic market, there is an anticipation of a price fall because an electricity rate for a full-water season will be applied in the main producing areas from July, whereas it becomes difficult at the present moment to secure spot goods. This is because the supply volume to the market has been reduced to a large extent due to the prolonged shutdown by small and medium-sized producers, and the demand and supply balance leaned towards a state of tight supply before the recovery in production arising from the application of the electricity rate for a full-water season. However, the market participants who see as a problem at the present moment are very few in number partly because the consumption for aluminium decreased owing to production curtailment in the summer time and the customers' procurement is low. The future trends in the prices will depend on the supply volume in July, which however is not yet in sight at the present moment.

In Japan, the cheap products get scarce and major aluminium makers' purchase prices during July to September are just fixed, and therefore many of market participants are refraining from trading spot goods. However, some of market participants seem to consider to advance the execution of the contract for the latter half (July - December) of this year as they think the current price is a rock-bottom price.

<> Ferro-silicon = In China, the shutdown by small and medium-sized producers has continued, and there has been no big change in the supply volume. On the one hand, the consumption in the steel industry and metallic magnesium industry is low as well, and the demand and supply is now being balanced. For that reason, the price meant for domestic consumption continues to be unchanged from the middle of June. As to the forecast about the future movement, albeit there won't be a big increase in the supply volume, but there are minus factors for consumption like there is a possibility that the restriction on the operation will be imposed on the steel mills in Hebei owing to invitation of Winter Olympic Games to Beijing, and such situation seems to continue as it is difficult for the price to go up.

As to the regularly-exported products, Chinese producers still wish to offer the price at around US$1,400 per ton, but the reactions from the trading firms and steel mills in Japan are severe. As the domestic demand in the period from July to September is weak and there is a pressure on prices of raw materials from the prices of steel products, the contract prices are put in a difficult situation to go up.

The price of products distributed in the market rose owing to decreased inflow volume of Chinese cheap products into the domestic market. The contract price is up by US$20 - US$30 from the end of May.

On the one hand, both contract and offer prices for Russian products remained unchanged from the middle of June.

<> Silico Manganese = In India, it is regarded as being a sure thing that the antidumping duty (AD duty) will be imposed in Europe, and therefore the cutback in production of 6517 product is prevailing. Because of this, the supply of spot goods became tight temporarily and the FOB price for export rose a bit. However, this is a short-term incident, and the prices meant for Japan and South Korea are considered to drop again after AD duty is decided to be imposed in Europe.

On the one hand, the consumption of silico manganese in Japan is anticipated to be down due to the production curtailment in the summer time during July to August, and the resistance to a price hike in the steel mill side is strong. Therefore, the contract price remained unchanged from the middle of June.

The price in the Chinese domestic market stopped declining, and maintained the level which was down by CNY50 per ton from the end of May. Among the export prices, the CIF price Japan dropped close to a level of US$1,300, but there seems to be no contract for the export to Japan.

<> Charge Chrome = The price negotiation on the benchmark price of South African charge chrome meant for Europe was fixed on June 29 at the price being unchanged from the prior period. The price is US Cents 108 per lb. On the one hand, the price negotiation meant for Japan is still going on, and many of market watchers say the price will be fixed in early July.

As to spot goods, the situation of no trading of spot goods having been clinched in Japan is going on.

<> Low-carbon Ferro-chrome = The negotiation on the regular price in the period from July to September is still going on and anticipated to come to an agreement by early July. Before that, the trading of spot goods is thin and almost no contract is made. The prices of small number of contracts are maintained at the level in the middle of June.

<> Molybdenum = LME molybdenum price marked a new record low since being listed which was US$13,250 per ton and bottomed out, but showed an upward trend on June 29 owing to the adjustment of a cheap price and recovered to a level of US$13,750, for which the price of spot goods in the European market continues declining, the price of molybdenum oxide dips below US$6.50 per lb (= US$14,330 per ton) and the price of ferro-molybdenum also continues declining. This is due to heavy impact from the production of special steel products (including stainless steel) in Europe being anticipated to be low during July to August and the excess supply by molybdenum producers.

<> Manganese Metal = The price in China lost speed before recovering to CNY11,000 per ton, and dropped by CNY250 in two weeks by contraries. This is because the resumption of producers' operation continued before the electricity rate for a full-water season was applied in the main producing areas, which resulted in increased supply volume to the market, but the consumption by steel mills, etc. had been low with no change, and the demand and supply balance trended towards excess supply once again. The FOB price for export also is down by US$45 per ton.

On the one hand, the contract price in Japan is down by US$20 - US$30 from the middle of June because the demand in Japan is still weak and the customers refrain from buying due to an anticipation of a price fall.

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last modified : Mon 06 Jul, 2015 [11:06]
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