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Market Trend of Import of Ferroalloy as of 25 December 2015
= Some of Chinese products are lowered partly due to weak Chinese yuan =
The market trend of import of ferroalloy as of 25 December 2015 is as follows.

<> Silicon Metal = The price of silicon metal in China stopped declining, which led to the anticipation of a price fall which occurred in the former half of December having no result but with the only price hike being stopped. However, many of market participants refrain from buying by expecting cheap sales before Chinese New Year Holidays (7th to 13th of February), and there is no feeling of the price touching the bottom.

The price of spot goods in Japan dropped by around US$5 per ton due to weak Chinese yuan. However, the buying activities by the customers which had continued to adjust in-hand stocks are low, and the shippers' sales are not positive, which leads to continuing thin trading.

<> Ferro-silicon = The shutdown of the plant in China has prevailed further, and the production volume throughout the nation continues to show a declining trend. For that reason, the prices of both products with Si being 75% and 72% in the domestic market stopped declining, and are expected to be flat from the end of the year to early January. The occurrence of realization sales before Chinese New Year Holidays (during 7th to 13th of February) is thought to be realized from the middle of January, but there is a prediction also in the market that there are many plants whose workers are dismissed due to shutdown, and the producers which are in a hurry to convert products into cash will be not many.

On the other hand, there is a rumor that the export procedures will restart from January at Tianjin where the export procedures was suspended from the time when the explosion accident happened in August. Even if the export procedures restart, it is difficult to switch the export immediately, and the export is anticipated to take place from Lianyungang, etc. for the time being.

In the Japanese domestic market, the demand for ordinary steel in the period from January to March in 2016 is forecast to be down from both of the year-earlier period and the prior period, and the crude steel production is thought to be low. It is obvious both producers and trading firms will adjust the inventory toward the end of March, and there are many opinions in the market that the price of ferro-silicon won't go up owing to a low consumption.

The offer price of regularly-exported Chinese products in the Japanese domestic market remains unchanged, but the contract price is down by US$5 - US$10 per ton. The price of the products distributed in the market is also down to similar extent in response to a downward pressure.

As to Russian products, the price turned to a flat trend from a declining trend. Due to getting sick to the sense of stagnation in the market, no atmosphere is realized to take part in this cheap sales. There was no change in both offer and contract prices as compared with the middle of December.

<> Silico Manganese = The operating rate in India is said to be around 20%, and the supply volume hovers at a low level. However, the feeling of excessive spot goods continues in the Asian market, and the price downward pressure is strong in the respective markets in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. In the Japanese market, the feeling of anticipation of a price fall is strong due to such predictions as the crude steel production will be reduced in the period from January to March in 2016, and Europe will impose an antidumping duty on Indian silico manganese during January to February, and the tapering down mood in December is anticipated to continue into January. At the present moment, both offer and contract prices are down by US$45 - US$65 per ton from the end of November.

The price in China stopped declining after a sharp drop in the former half of December. This is because, in addition to the producers' shutdown prevailing further due to the stagnating market, there were factors resisting the price downward pressure like the price of imported manganese ore as raw materials was not reduced in December. On the other hand, the offer price meant for Japan was down by US$5 - US$10, but no contract was made.

For a reference, as to the imposition of the antidumping duty on Indian silico manganese in the U.S., the announcement of final decision by the Department of Commerce (DOC) is delayed, and there has been no big movement in the situation.

<> High-carbon Ferro-chrome (including charge chrome) = The contract price of high-carbon ferro-chrome for the period from January to March in 2016 meant for Japan is still under negotiation, and it is difficult to come to an agreement before the year is out, and the settlement is anticipated to take place after the turn of the year. However, as the benchmark price of South African charge chrome meant for Europe was fixed by being down by US Cents 12 from the prior period on December 9, the market participants see the contract price meant for Japan also will be fixed by being down by US Cents 12 from the prior period.

For a reference, the situation of almost no trading of spot goods having been clinched in Japan is going on.
last modified : Wed 06 Jan, 2016 [09:41]
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